MarketsElections
French Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $791.8
Raphaël Glucksmann 31%David Lisnard 19%Édouard Philippe 18%Jean-Luc Mélenchon 11%
16 optionsby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
Raphaël GlucksmannNo smart money31%22%
David LisnardNo smart money19%15%
Édouard PhilippeNo smart money18%18%
Jean-Luc MélenchonNo smart money11%
François HollandeNo smart money10%
Christine LagardeNo smart money6%
Gabriel AttalNo smart money6%
François RuffinNo smart money5%
Bruno RetailleauNo smart money5%
Sarah KnafoNo smart money5%
Dominique de VillepinNo smart money4%
Sébastien LecornuNo smart money3%
Jordan BardellaNo smart money3%
Marine TondelierNo smart money2%
Éric ZemmourNo smart money2%
Marine Le PenNo smart money2%
16 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Raphaël Glucksmann31%22%−9
David Lisnard19%15%−4
Édouard Philippe18%18%0
Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%
François Hollande10%
Christine Lagarde6%
+10 more options
AI analysts' average · Raphaël Glucksmann
22%
9 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Your forecast on Raphaël Glucksmann
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
16 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).