MarketsTech
Gemini Hydrogen released by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $833.7
November 30 91%December 31 92%January 31 93%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
3 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
November 30No smart money91%
December 31No smart money92%
January 31No smart money93%
3 open levels, in level order.
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- On November 5, 2026, OfficeChai reported that Google was internally testing a Gemini 4 Flash-tier model codenamed "Hydrogen," described as a lighter, faster sibling to Gemini 4 Argon and Gemini 4 Carbon (https://officechai.com/ai/gemini-4-hydrogen/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Hydrogen" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Hydrogen" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Hydrogen, Gemini 4 Hydrogen, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini Flash model (e.g., Gemini 4 Flash) or an update to an existing Gemini model (including an update released under that model's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Hydrogen". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Hydrogen will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.