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Gemini Hydrogen: Text Arena Debut?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 3m agoPolymarket 24h vol $6.2K
1520+ 31%1500+ 74%1540+ 12%1480+ 93%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
4 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
1480+No smart money93%
1500+No smart money74%
1520+No smart money31%
1540+No smart money12%
4 open levels, in level order.
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
4 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Yes if a Google model named 'Hydrogen' (or confirmed by Google or credible reporting to be the same model) is newly added to the Arena.AI Text Arena Overall leaderboard (style control off, https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control), without an 'AutoEval' label, and its Score is at least 1480+ at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date after it first appears. Otherwise No, including if no qualifying model appears by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Watch out
- The score is read at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date after the model first appears, and only without an 'AutoEval' label. A model listed under another name counts only if confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be Hydrogen.
- Resolution criteria
- On November 5, 2026, OfficeChai reported that Google was internally testing a Gemini 4 Flash-tier model codenamed "Hydrogen," described as a lighter, faster sibling to Gemini 4 Argon and Gemini 4 Carbon (https://officechai.com/ai/gemini-4-hydrogen/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Hydrogen" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Hydrogen" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Hydrogen, Gemini 4 Hydrogen, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini Flash model (e.g., Gemini 4 Flash) or an update to an existing Gemini model, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Hydrogen". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Hydrogen will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".