MarketsPolitics
Hegseth impeached and removed by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 18m agoPolymarket 24h vol $2.1K
March 31, 2027 27%December 31, 2026 4%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
2 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
December 31, 2026No smart money4%
March 31, 2027No smart money27%
2 open levels, in level order.
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth is impeached and removed from the office of United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Impeachment means the U.S. House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth. Removal means the U.S. Senate votes to convict Pete Hegseth on one or more articles of impeachment by the two-thirds vote required under the U.S. Constitution, as announced by the presiding officer of the Senate. The conviction will be considered to occur at the time of that announcement. Whip counts, statements of intended votes, and partial vote tallies will not qualify. This market will resolve to “Yes” upon a qualifying conviction, regardless of when the Senate pronounces judgment, whether it votes on disqualification from future office, whether Pete Hegseth vacates the office, or any legal challenge to the conviction. Impeachment without a Senate conviction will not qualify. An acquittal or dismissal of articles of impeachment will not, on its own, resolve this market. If Pete Hegseth formally leaves the office of Secretary of War for any reason before a qualifying conviction, including by resignation or dismissal, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. An announcement of a future resignation does not count as leaving office. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Congress, including Senate roll call votes; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.