MarketsWeather
Highest temperature in Tokyo on November 11?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $23.9K
14°C 100%9°C or below <1%10°C <1%11°C <1%
11 options
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
9°C or belowNo smart money<1%
10°CNo smart money<1%
11°CNo smart money<1%
12°CNo smart money<1%
13°CSmart money0 Yes1 No<1%8%
14°CSmart money1 Yes2 No100%53%
15°CSmart money2 Yes0 No<1%36%
16°CNo smart money<1%10%
17°CNo smart money<1%
18°CNo smart money<1%
19°C or higherNo smart money<1%
11 options trading.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
9°C or below<1%
10°C<1%
11°C<1%
12°C<1%
13°C<1%8%+8
14°C100%53%−47
+5 more options
AI analysts' average · 9°C or below
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Your forecast on 9°C or below
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Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
14°CYes 0x2bFd3738d0298174DFA80a1202f8156fa739C40x2bFd3738d0298174DFA80a1202f8156fa739C4: Tier 2, #44 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No edgewarehouseedgewarehouse: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 0x2bFd3738d0298174DFA80a1202f8156fa739C40x2bFd3738d0298174DFA80a1202f8156fa739C4: Tier 2, #44 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 edgewarehouseedgewarehouse: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Lex-tangLex-tang: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
15°CYes 0x9506…1c4f0x9506…1c4f: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 0x9506…1c4f0x9506…1c4f: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1quqqqquqqq: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
13°CNo 0x9506…1c4f0x9506…1c4f: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 0x9506…1c4f0x9506…1c4f: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
8 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- 9°C or below resolves Yes if the highest temperature in any routine METAR (not SPECI) for Tokyo Haneda (RJTT) with a time stamp on 11 Nov 2026 Japan time, read from the T-group in tenths of °C and rounded to the nearest whole degree (.5 rounds up), falls in 9°C or below's range. Otherwise it resolves No. The source is the Aviation Weather Center RJTT METAR feed.
- Watch out
- The Nov 11 date is Japan local time (1500Z Nov 10 to 1500Z Nov 11). SPECI reports do not count. Rounding uses the T-group tenths, with exactly .5 rounded up.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT) on 11 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=RJTT&format=raw&date=2026-11-11T18:00:00Z&hours=30