MarketsBusiness
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 levels openResearch 8d ago
5.4% 23%5.5% 13%5.7% 5%6.0% 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
4 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
5.4%23%33%+10
5.5%13%12%−1
5.7%5%5%0
6.0%3%3%0
AI analysts' average · 5.4%
33%
10 pts above the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
5.7%Yes funnydayfunnyday: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 funnydayfunnyday: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2NoSteinNoGateNoSteinNoGate: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10xe617…f2510xe617…f251: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 · 3
5.4%Yes funnydayfunnyday: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 funnydayfunnyday: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2tinman2tinman2: Tier 2, #49 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1NoSteinNoGateNoSteinNoGate: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 3
5.5%Yes funnydayfunnyday: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 funnydayfunnyday: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2tinman2tinman2: Tier 2, #49 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1NoSteinNoGateNoSteinNoGate: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 2
6.0%No TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1funnydayfunnyday: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 3
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Yes if the Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve '10 Yr' value is at or above 5.4% on any date from market creation through Dec 31, 2026. Otherwise No. It resolves early on a qualifying reading.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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