MarketsEconomy
How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in November?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 8m agoPolymarket 24h vol $388
4.88% 51%4.97% 47%4.72% 47%4.76% 45%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
9 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4.68%74%——none
4.72%47%——none
4.76%45%——none
4.80%31%——none
4.84%29%——none
4.88%51%——none
4.92%25%——none
4.97%47%——none
5.02%35%——none
9 open levels, in level order.
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
9 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).