MarketsClimate
How low will Lake Powell drop?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 optionsResearch 10h ago
Above 3,510 ft 96%3,500–3,510 ft 4%3,490–3,500 ft <1%Below 3,490 ft <1%
4 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Above 3,510 ft96%93%−3
3,500–3,510 ft4%19%+15
3,490–3,500 ft<1%1%0
Below 3,490 ft<1%1%+1
AI analysts' average · Above 3,510 ft
93%
3 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Above 3,510 ftYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
3,500–3,510 ftYes Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 · 0
3,490–3,500 ftYes Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Below 3,490 ftYes Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Above 3,510 ft resolves Yes if the lowest daily Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) elevation recorded between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (data.usbr.gov catalog 2362 item 508), falls in the Above 3,510 ft bracket. Otherwise it resolves No. The USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and later revisions don't count. The lakepowell.water-data.com site may be referenced, but USBR governs if they disagree. Trading closes 2027-04-16.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
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