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How many Anthropic shares will trade on IPO day?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $799
1.5B+ 43%650M to 800M 42%800M to 1B 42%1B to 1.25B 42%
8 optionsin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
<500MNo smart money13%
500M to 650MNo smart money41%
650M to 800MNo smart money42%
800M to 1BNo smart money42%
1B to 1.25BNo smart money42%
1.25B to 1.5BNo smart money42%
1.5B+No smart money43%
No IPO by December 31, 2027No smart money5%
8 open levels, in level order.
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
8 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the total consolidated share volume of Anthropic's Class A common stock on Anthropic's first day of trading, as published by its primary exchange. Consolidated share volume means the total number of shares traded across all U.S. trading venues that report to the consolidated tape, including all U.S. stock exchanges and off-exchange trades reported to a FINRA trade reporting facility (such as alternative trading systems and broker-dealers). The figure used will be the daily share volume for Anthropic's first day of trading as displayed on the primary exchange's official historical data page for the stock, as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the trading day following the first day of trading. Revisions published after that time will not be considered. If the primary exchange does not display this figure, another reliable source reporting consolidated share volume will be used. Each bracket includes its lower end and excludes its upper end, so a volume exactly on a boundary resolves to the higher bracket (e.g., exactly 1,000,000,000 shares resolves to "1B to 1.25B"). "M" means million shares and "B" means billion shares. Anthropic’s first day of trading refers to the first day Anthropic’s Class A common stock trades on the secondary market on its primary exchange. The sale of shares to investors at the IPO price, and any trading before the exchange listing (such as on private-share platforms), will not be considered. For this market, an IPO means an underwritten, SEC-registered offering of newly issued shares of Anthropic’s Class A common stock sold to the public for cash under a registration statement on Form S-1 that the SEC has declared effective, where the shares have been approved for listing on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American, the Nasdaq Stock Market, or Cboe BZX Exchange, and the offering has been priced, as shown by the first final prospectus filed with the SEC under Rule 424(b). Direct listings, mergers with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), reverse mergers, private placements, and listings outside the U.S. will not count. An IPO counts as completed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if the pricing date stated on the cover of that first final prospectus is on or before that time, even if the prospectus is filed afterwards; if Anthropic’s registration statement has been declared effective by then but the prospectus has not yet been filed, this market will wait until 11:59 PM ET on the second business day after December 31, 2027 for it. Because this market depends on trading in Anthropic’s shares, if the IPO is priced but the shares never begin trading on the listing exchange, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by then, or publicly announces a definitive agreement to be acquired by or merged into another company before completing one, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”, regardless of whether that transaction is later completed or terminated. An IPO by a holding company formed to hold all or substantially all of Anthropic’s business for the purpose of the IPO counts as Anthropic’s IPO. If Anthropic's first day of trading is a shortened session (e.g., a half-day) or trading is interrupted (e.g., by a circuit breaker), the published daily share volume for that day will be used as displayed.