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How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $32.2K
No vote 97%<215 4%220-224 <1%225-229 <1%
8 optionsin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
<215No smart money4%15%
215-219No smart money<1%28%
220-224No smart money<1%20%
225-229No smart money<1%
230-234No smart money<1%
235-239No smart money<1%
240+No smart money<1%12%
No voteNo smart money97%93%
8 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
<2154%15%+11
215-219<1%28%+28
220-224<1%20%+19
225-229<1%
230-234<1%
235-239<1%
+2 more options
AI analysts' average · <215
15%
11 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
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Rules
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- In plain English
- <215 resolves Yes if the number of House members voting in favor of impeaching Pete Hegseth, on the legislative day of the first recorded floor vote on adopting a resolution or articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, falls in <215's range. If several such votes are held that day, the one with the most Yes votes counts. Procedural votes (tabling, referral, previous question, rules) do not count. 'No vote' resolves Yes only if no such floor vote is held by that deadline. The Clerk's roll-call records are the primary source.
- Watch out
- Only a recorded vote on adopting the impeachment resolution or articles counts; a vote to table or refer does not, even if it blocks the floor vote. Only the first legislative day with such a vote counts, using its highest Yes tally.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple floor votes on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth are held on the first legislative day on which such a floor vote is held, this market will resolve based on the vote that receives the highest number of votes in favor. Votes held on any later legislative day will not be considered. A floor vote on articles of impeachment is a recorded vote of the full House on the adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth or of one or more articles of impeachment against him. Procedural votes, including but not limited to votes on motions to table, motions to refer or commit, motions on the previous question, and votes on rules governing debate, will not count, even if the result of such a vote prevents a floor vote on articles of impeachment from being held. The outcome of the vote (whether or not the articles are adopted) does not affect resolution; only the number of votes in favor of impeachment is considered. If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No vote". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.