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How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $2.6K
255-259 33%245-249 20%244 or fewer 19%250-254 19%
9 optionsin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
244 or fewerSmart money1 Yes0 No19%18%
245-249No smart money20%20%
250-254No smart money19%23%
255-259No smart money33%30%
260-264No smart money3%
265-269No smart money<1%
270-274No smart money<1%
275-279No smart money<1%
280 or moreNo smart money<1%
9 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
244 or fewer19%18%−1
245-24920%20%0
250-25419%23%+4
255-25933%30%−3
260-2643%
265-269<1%
+3 more options
AI analysts' average · 244 or fewer
18%
1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Your forecast on 244 or fewer
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
244 or fewerYes SlavaUkrainiSlavaUkraini: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 SlavaUkrainiSlavaUkraini: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
8 options: no ranked trader holds them
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See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Jeffries receives 244 or fewer votes by name on the first Speaker ballot, including zero votes. It also resolves Yes if no ballot has taken place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if someone else is elected on the first ballot without a recorded tally. Otherwise No.
- Watch out
- Only votes cast for Jeffries by name on the first roll-call ballot count, even if he is not elected on it. If a Speaker is chosen on the first ballot without a recorded tally, the market resolves to the lowest bracket when someone else is chosen and to the highest bracket when Jeffries is chosen.
- Resolution criteria
- The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress. This market will resolve according to the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first ballot for Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress, as announced by the Clerk of the House. A ballot is a roll call vote of the House to elect a Speaker, as conducted and announced by the Clerk of the House. Quorum calls and votes on procedural motions (such as motions to adjourn) are not ballots. Only votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries by name on the first such ballot will count, regardless of whether he is elected on that ballot. If Hakeem Jeffries receives no votes on the first ballot, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If a person other than Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If no ballot to elect the Speaker of the 120th Congress has taken place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call votes for the election of the Speaker published by the Clerk of the US House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.