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IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 4d ago

Polymarket chance · the 2 levels nearest 50%

December 31 17%October 31 <1%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

2 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

October 31<1%−0.2 pts1%2 · 1

December 3117%+7.0 pts13%1 · 1

2 open levels, in level order.

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 4d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

October 31<1%1%0

December 3117%13%−4

AI analysts' average · December 31

13%

4 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts

Track record

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Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 1d ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

October 31Yes 101456 T2 No pakukudolphi T22 101456 T2troim T2 1 pakukudolphi T22 · 1

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In plain English: Resolves Yes if IAEA officials physically enter the Isfahan, Fordow or Natanz site (not Pickaxe Mountain) between market creation and December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Visits to other sites and remote inspections do not count. Otherwise No.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.