How do I trade on "Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

IN-05 House Election Winner

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 optionsCloses Nov 4, 2026Research 1d ago

Polymarket chance · top 2 of 2 options

Victoria Spartz (R) 80%J. D. Ford (D) 20%

2 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Victoria Spartz (R)80%+1.5 pts80%1 · 0

J. D. Ford (D)20%−1.0 pts20%0 · 1

2 options trading, by chance.

AI analysts

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Victoria Spartz (R)80%80%0

J. D. Ford (D)20%20%0

AI analysts' average · Victoria Spartz (R)

80%

level with the market · 3 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

1d
HMP Announces New Buys in IN-05 and MN-01
House Majority PAC

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's election traders by 3-month profit · updated 22h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

Victoria Spartz (R)Yes Gaditima T21 Gaditima T201 · 0

J. D. Ford (D)No Gaditima T201 Gaditima T20 · 1

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Resolves Yes if Victoria Spartz (R)'s party wins the IN-05 U.S. House seat in the November 3, 2026 election, per a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, FEC official results decide.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

How markets resolve