MarketsElections
Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner 2028
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $0
Josh Hawley 49%Marco Rubio 47%Ted Cruz 47%Rand Paul 47%
20 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Josh Hawley49%———
Marco Rubio47%———
Ted Cruz47%———
Rand Paul47%———
Donald Trump46%———
Ivanka Trump46%———
Marjorie Taylor Greene46%———
Tom Cotton46%———
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.45%———
Pete Hegseth45%———
Donald Trump Jr.45%———
Elon Musk45%———
Brian Kemp44%———
Ron DeSantis43%———
Tucker Carlson43%———
Thomas Massie43%———
Greg Abbott42%———
Glenn Youngkin42%———
Vivek Ramaswamy42%———
J.D. Vance41%———
20 options trading, by chance.
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- Iowa is expected to hold a Republican presidential primary or caucus in 2028. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most votes in the Iowa Republican primary, caucus, or other official voting process by which the Iowa public directs the voting of delegates for the selection of the 2028 Republican presidential nominee. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count that determines the apportionment of statewide delegates. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2028 Iowa primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by the earliest of November 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or the first day of the 2028 Republican convention, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.