MarketsBusiness
IPOs before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN27 levels openResearch 8d ago
Anthropic 95%Celonis 13%Discord 6%Stripe 5%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
27 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
27 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anthropic95%76%−19
Celonis13%10%−3
Discord6%6%0
Stripe5%1%−4
Rippling5%4%−1
Freddie Mac5%4%−1
+21 more options
AI analysts' average · Anthropic
76%
19 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 1 price closer, on 312–394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
OpenAIYes ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f0x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 · 1
AnthropicYes ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 0x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f0x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 0x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f0x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2StupidMonkeyyyStupidMonkeyyy: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
DiscordNo ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f0x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
StripeNo ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Freddie MacNo ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
LedgerNo ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
RevolutYes 0x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f0x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 0x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f0x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8f: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Mistral AINo AhpoAhpo: Tier 2, #15 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 AhpoAhpo: Tier 2, #15 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Fannie MaeNo ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 ImJustKenImJustKen: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Ripple LabsNo AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
CanvaNo vimtodcsvimtodcs: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 vimtodcsvimtodcs: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
DatabricksNo AhpoAhpo: Tier 2, #15 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 AhpoAhpo: Tier 2, #15 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
15 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Yes if Anthropic completes its IPO, meaning the first sale of its stock to the public on a recognized exchange, by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, as shown by consensus credible reporting. It resolves No if Anthropic merges, is acquired or ceases to exist first, or if no IPO has happened by then.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
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