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Iran full airspace closure by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 levels open
December 31 40%October 31 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
2 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 313%5%+2
December 3140%35%−5
AI analysts' average · December 31
35%
5 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 359 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
December 31Yes meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No controlscontrols: Tier 2, #15 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 meagainsttheworldmeagainsttheworld: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Hossein-mHossein-m: Tier 2, #46 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 controlscontrols: Tier 2, #15 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 3
October 31Yes JustAProfessorJustAProfessor: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 JustAProfessorJustAProfessor: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
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