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Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN3 levels openResearch 3d ago
December 31 26%November 30 18%October 31 4%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
3 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
3 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 314%2%−2
November 3018%13%−5
December 3126%22%−4
AI analysts' average · December 31
22%
4 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 0 level, 1 price closer, on 358 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
October 31Yes 101456101456: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No M2sx92kljs42M2sx92kljs42: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 101456101456: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 M2sx92kljs42M2sx92kljs42: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Javier777MileiJavier777Milei: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Oman and Iran both announce acceptance of the same diplomatic agreement on managing Strait of Hormuz traffic by the option's date (October 31, November 30 or December 31, 2026), 11:59 PM ET. Each announcement must be a clear declarative statement of acceptance. Statements about ongoing negotiations do not qualify. Otherwise No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
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