Israel Election: Blue and White vote share?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Event finished1 optionResearch 3d ago
<0.75% >99%
1 option · in level order
1 open level, in level order. +4 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · <0.75%
16 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
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1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Blue and White's list (including any joint list or merged party) wins less than 0.75% of valid votes in the Israeli Knesset election expected October 27, 2026, whether or not it passes the threshold. A result exactly on a bracket boundary goes to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, it resolves to the lowest bracket. The Central Elections Committee's official results decide if reporting is ambiguous.
- Resolution criteria
- Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Blue and White party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Blue and White's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Blue and White passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Blue and White contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Blue and White merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
