MarketsPolitics
Israeli Legislative Election: Turnout
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Event finished5 optionsResearch 9h ago
74%+ >99%72-74% 2%66-68% <1%68-70% <1%
5 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
66-68%<1%4%+4
68-70%<1%9%+9
70-72%<1%15%+15
72-74%2%28%+26
74%+>99%60%−40
AI analysts' average · 74%+
60%
40 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 359–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
74%+Yes mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1balerinacapuchinabalerinacapuchina: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #44 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 2
72-74%Yes D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #44 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
70-72%Yes SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #44 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #44 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- 74%+'s market resolves Yes if the official turnout for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election falls in this bracket, and No otherwise. Turnout is total votes cast (סה"כ קולות שהוזנו) divided by total eligible voters (סה"כ בעלי זכות בחירה), as reported by the Central Election Committee. A value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket (<66%).
- Resolution criteria
- Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Israeli legislative election to the Knesset, defined as the total number of votes cast (סה"כ קולות שהוזנו) divided by the total number of eligible voters (סה"כ בעלי זכות בחירה). (see 2022 example: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
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