MarketsBusiness
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN6 optionsResearch 2d ago
SpaceX 58%Anthropic 39%Perplexity AI <1%
6 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
6 options trading, by chance. +6 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
SpaceX58%71%+13
Anthropic39%32%−7
Perplexity AI<1%1%+1
ByteDance———
Revolut———
Discord———
AI analysts' average · SpaceX
71%
13 pts above the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
SpaceXYes viniivinii: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 4 viniivinii: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1tetrosetetrose: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 04 · 0
AnthropicYes MaxEntMaxEnt: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb80x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb8: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 MaxEntMaxEnt: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb80x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb8: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
4 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- SpaceX resolves Yes if it completes an IPO between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET) and has the highest market cap of any 2026 IPO company. Market cap is shares outstanding times the official closing price on its first trading day, in USD. Ties go to the alphabetically first name. A company that can no longer complete an IPO, for example through acquisition by a public company, resolves No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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