MarketsWeather
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on November 11?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $5.8K
18°C >99%16°C <1%17°C <1%14°C or below <1%
11 options
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
14°C or belowNo smart money<1%
15°CNo smart money<1%
16°CSmart money1 Yes0 No<1%
17°CSmart money2 Yes1 No<1%20%
18°CSmart money4 Yes0 No>99%76%
19°CSmart money1 Yes0 No<1%
20°CNo smart money<1%
21°CNo smart money<1%
22°CNo smart money<1%
23°CNo smart money<1%
24°C or higherNo smart money<1%
11 options trading.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
14°C or below<1%
15°C<1%
16°C<1%
17°C<1%20%+20
18°C>99%76%−24
19°C<1%
+5 more options
AI analysts' average · 14°C or below
—
Your forecast on 14°C or below
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
18°CYes edgewarehouseedgewarehouse: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 4 edgewarehouseedgewarehouse: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1CreamCream1215CreamCream1215: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 04 · 0
17°CYes CreamCream1215CreamCream1215: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No edgewarehouseedgewarehouse: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 CreamCream1215CreamCream1215: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20xf51b…ca1b0xf51b…ca1b: Tier 2, #36 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 edgewarehouseedgewarehouse: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
16°CYes 0xf51b…ca1b0xf51b…ca1b: Tier 2, #36 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 0xf51b…ca1b0xf51b…ca1b: Tier 2, #36 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
19°CYes CreamCream1215CreamCream1215: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CreamCream1215CreamCream1215: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
7 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- 14°C or below resolves Yes if the Hong Kong Observatory's 'Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)' for 11 Nov 2026, as first published in the Daily Extract on its Climate Information page, falls in 14°C or below's bracket (to one decimal place). Otherwise it resolves No. If no data is published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the observation date, the market resolves to the lowest bracket (14°C or below).
- Watch out
- Only the Hong Kong Observatory's 'Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)' in the Daily Extract, as first published, counts; later revisions are ignored. If there is no data by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the date, the market resolves to the lowest bracket, 14°C or below.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Nov '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.