Macron out by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level openResearch 7d ago
December 31, 2026 4%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
1 level open · in level order
1 open level, in level order.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · December 31, 2026
level with the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 1 price closer, on 312–544 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Emmanuel Macron stops being President of France for any length of time between market creation and Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves immediately if he leaves office. Otherwise it resolves No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
