Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level openResearch 8d ago
December 31 7%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
1 level open
1 option trading.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · December 31
2 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
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1 option: no ranked trader holds it
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be Saudi Arabia's leader for any period through 2026-12-31 (ET). An announced resignation or removal, detention, effective removal, or permanent incapacity also counts. Otherwise No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
