MarketsPolitics
National Guard deployed to election sites by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $40
December 31 3%November 30 3%November 15 <1%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
3 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
November 15No smart money<1%
November 30No smart money3%2%
December 31No smart money3%2%
3 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
November 15<1%
November 303%2%−1
December 313%2%−1
AI analysts' average · November 15
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Your forecast on November 15
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
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Rules
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- In plain English
- The market resolves Yes if federalized National Guard personnel (Title 10, including 10 U.S.C. § 12406 or the Insurrection Act) are physically present at, and assigned to, a polling place, early voting site or ballot counting, tabulation or canvass facility in connection with the November 3, 2026 elections, between market creation and November 15, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No.
- Watch out
- State Active Duty and Title 32 Guard support, including routine governor-ordered election help, does not qualify. Neither do DC Guard under Title 32, announcements or orders alone, or active-duty troops. Only federalized Guard physically assigned to a qualifying site counts.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if federalized National Guard personnel are deployed to a polling place or a vote-counting or canvassing center in the United States between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying deployment requires National Guard personnel who have been called into federal service or placed under orders pursuant to Title 10 of the U.S. Code (including under 10 U.S.C. § 12406 or the Insurrection Act, 10 U.S.C. §§ 251–255) to be assigned to, and physically present at, a polling place, early voting site, or facility where ballots are counted, tabulated, or canvassed (including an election office conducting a count, recount, or canvass) in connection with the November 3, 2026 U.S. elections or any count, recount, or canvass of those elections. National Guard personnel serving in State Active Duty or Title 32 status, including routine election support under a governor's authority (e.g. cybersecurity, logistics, or poll worker assistance), will not qualify. Deployments of the District of Columbia National Guard or of Title 32 personnel in Washington, D.C. will likewise not qualify unless those personnel are called into federal service under Title 10. Incidental presence of Guard personnel near a polling place or counting facility in the course of a deployment not assigned to that location will not qualify. Statements, announcements, threats, or orders to deploy will not qualify unless federalized National Guard personnel are physically deployed to a qualifying location. Deployments of active-duty military personnel other than the National Guard, or of federal law enforcement personnel, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official U.S. government statements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.