Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released on...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 00:34 UTCLast trade · 2m agoCloses Dec 1, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $2K

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 32 options

No release by November 30 29%November 8 1%November 27 2%November 11 2%

32 options · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

On or prior to October 312%———

November 11%———

November 21%———

November 31%———

November 42%———

November 51%———

November 62%———

November 71%———

November 81%———

November 92%———

November 102%———

November 112%———

November 1210%———

November 131%———

November 143%———

November 152%———

November 162%———

November 171%———

November 182%———

November 192%———

November 202%———

November 212%———

November 222%———

November 232%———

November 243%———

November 252%———

November 263%———

November 272%———

November 282%———

November 292%———

November 3017%———

No release by November 3029%———

32 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 32 options

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.