Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 00:34 UTCLast trade · 3m agoCloses Dec 1, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $80

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 32 options

November 3 25%November 4 12%November 15 12%November 1 11%

32 options · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

On or prior to October 3111%———

November 111%———

November 211%———

November 325%———

November 412%———

November 58%———

November 611%———

November 711%———

November 811%———

November 911%———

November 1011%———

November 1111%———

November 1211%———

November 1311%———

November 1411%———

November 1512%———

November 1611%———

November 1711%———

November 1811%———

November 1911%———

November 2011%———

November 2111%———

November 2211%———

November 2311%———

November 2411%———

November 2511%———

November 2611%———

November 2711%———

November 2811%———

November 2911%———

November 3011%———

No release by November 3011%———

32 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 32 options

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.