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Next Gemini Carbon (4.1+) released on...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $16.5K
No release by December 31 66%November 24 9%November 14 8%December 8 4%
49 optionsin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
November 14No smart money8%
November 15No smart money4%
November 16No smart money3%
November 17No smart money<1%
November 18No smart money3%
November 19No smart money2%
November 20No smart money3%
November 21No smart money<1%
November 22No smart money4%
November 23No smart money3%
November 24No smart money9%
November 25No smart money3%
November 26No smart money3%
November 27No smart money3%
November 28No smart money<1%
November 29No smart money<1%
November 30No smart money<1%
December 1No smart money<1%
December 2No smart money<1%
December 3No smart money<1%
December 4No smart money3%
December 5No smart money<1%
December 6No smart money3%
December 7No smart money4%
December 8No smart money4%
December 9No smart money3%
December 10No smart money2%
December 11No smart money3%
December 12No smart money2%
December 13No smart money2%
December 14No smart money<1%
December 15No smart money4%
December 16No smart money3%
December 17No smart money3%
December 18No smart money<1%
December 19No smart money3%
December 20No smart money3%
December 21No smart money2%
December 22No smart money3%
December 23No smart money3%
December 24No smart money3%
December 25No smart money3%
December 26No smart money<1%
December 27No smart money3%
December 28No smart money2%
December 29No smart money3%
December 30No smart money3%
December 31No smart money3%
No release by December 31No smart money66%
49 open levels, in level order.
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
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Rules
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- In plain English
- November 14 resolves Yes if Google's next qualifying Gemini Carbon model is made available to the general public on that calendar date (ET). A qualifying model has 'Gemini' and 'Carbon' in its name and is version 4.1 or higher, for example Gemini 4.1 Carbon or Gemini 5 Carbon. It resolves No otherwise. The 'No release by December 31' option resolves Yes if no such model is public by December 31, 2026. Gemini 4 Carbon (released November 10, 2026) does not qualify, nor do modality variants such as image, TTS or Live. The model must be publicly accessible, including open beta or an open waitlist. A…
- Watch out
- Gemini 4 Carbon, released November 10, 2026, and any rollout, snapshot or reasoning setting of it does not qualify. Only a model designated 4.1 or higher with both 'Gemini' and 'Carbon' in its name counts.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Carbon" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Carbon would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 5 Carbon, while models whose name does not include "Carbon" or which retain a version designation below 4.1, such as Gemini 4 Carbon (released November 10, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, or reasoning setting of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as image, TTS, or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.