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Next Gemini Hydrogen (4.1+) released by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $16.6
December 31 49%December 15 46%November 30 43%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
3 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
November 30No smart money43%
December 15No smart money46%
December 31No smart money49%
3 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
The AI analysts are reviewing this market. Usually within the hour.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Hydrogen model (4.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Hydrogen" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Hydrogen would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 5 Hydrogen, while models whose name does not include "Hydrogen" or which retain a version designation below 4.1, such as Gemini 4 Hydrogen (released November 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, or reasoning setting of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as image, TTS, or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.