Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 00:34 UTCLast trade · 11m agoCloses Dec 1, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $20

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 32 options

No release by November 30 2%November 12 15%November 30 4%On or prior to October 31 4%

32 options · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

On or prior to October 314%———

November 11%———

November 24%———

November 31%———

November 44%———

November 54%———

November 64%———

November 74%———

November 82%———

November 92%———

November 101%———

November 111%———

November 1215%———

November 139%———

November 144%———

November 154%———

November 161%———

November 171%———

November 182%———

November 191%———

November 202%———

November 214%———

November 222%———

November 232%———

November 242%———

November 251%———

November 262%———

November 272%———

November 287%———

November 292%———

November 304%———

No release by November 302%———

32 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 32 options

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.