Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN12 optionsResearch 2h ago
No Next Minister by Feb 28 52%Yair Lapid 22%Benjamin Netanyahu 17%Avigdor Lieberman 2%
12 options · by chance
12 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · No Next Minister by Feb 28
14 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 359 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
12 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes for No Next Minister by Feb 28 if that person first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs (or its confirmed successor post) in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. The Knesset must approve the appointment, by a confidence vote in the government or a later vote approving the appointment. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count. If no such minister assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' resolves Yes and all other options resolve No.
- Watch out
- Only a minister approved by the Knesset in the first government formed after the 2026 election counts; caretaker or interim foreign ministers do not. If none assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' resolves Yes.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
