MarketsPolitics
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Resolved0 options1 closedResearch 10d ago
0 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed option
0 options trading, by chance. +16 more on Polymarket
The calls
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
AI analysts' average · Luca Niculescu
94%
6 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves to the next person who officially becomes Romania's PM by 2027-12-31 11:59 PM ET. The person must be appointed by the President and win a parliamentary confidence vote, so a caretaker or interim PM without that vote does not count. If no one takes office by then, the market resolves 'Other'. This market is for Luca Niculescu.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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