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Next Qwen Max (4.1+) released by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 34m agoPolymarket 24h vol $242
January 31 25%March 31 81%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
2 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
January 31No smart money25%
March 31Smart money1 Yes0 No81%
2 open levels, in level order.
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News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
March 31Yes KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (4.1+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.8-Max or Qwen4-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen5-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 4.1, such as Qwen4-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen4-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.