MarketsCrypto
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN6 levels openResearch 6d ago
$500M 7%$100M 7%$1B 7%$300M 6%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
6 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
6 options trading. +2 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
$100M7%8%+1
$300M6%7%+1
$500M 7%7%0
$1B7%6%−1
$3B4%3%−1
$5B3%3%0
AI analysts' average · $500M
7%
level with the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
$300MYes fakerfanfakerfan: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 fakerfanfakerfan: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1BeyonddreamBeyonddream: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
$1BNo mefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 mefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1BeyonddreamBeyonddream: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 3
$500M No mefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 mefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1BeyonddreamBeyonddream: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
$100MNo 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
$3BYes HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Yes if OpenSea's token has FDV above $500M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. The token must be publicly tradable and transferable, and the price source is the most liquid one available. If no token launches by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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