MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Nominations
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN14 levels openResearch 1d ago
Project Hail Mary 67%Dune: Part Three 39%The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth 28%Clarissa 21%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
14 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
14 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
The Odyssey94%88%−6
The Invite90%80%−10
The Black Ball89%87%−2
Project Hail Mary67%68%+1
Dune: Part Three39%30%−9
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth28%20%−8
+8 more options
AI analysts' average · The Odyssey
88%
6 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothYes title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
The OdysseyYes title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
Toy Story 5Yes title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
The InviteNo sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Project Hail MaryYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
ClarissaYes title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
WildwoodYes sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
The Social ReckoningNo sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Saturn ReturnNo sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
5 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- The Odyssey resolves Yes if it is officially nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards when nominations are announced (scheduled January 21, 2027; ceremony March 14, 2027). It resolves No if it is not nominated, or if no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is AMPAS/Oscars.org, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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