MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN11 levels openResearch 6d ago
Sense and Sensibility 63%Werwulf 60%Dune: Part Three 55%The Devil Wears Prada 2 42%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
11 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
11 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
The Odyssey81%74%−7
The Black Ball76%75%−1
Sense and Sensibility63%45%−18
Werwulf60%50%−10
Dune: Part Three55%60%+5
The Devil Wears Prada 242%37%−5
+5 more options
AI analysts' average · The Odyssey
74%
7 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
I Love BoostersYes title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 · 2
The OdysseyYes jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
The Black BallYes jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
The Devil Wears Prada 2No jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Wild Horse NineNo jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothNo 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
5 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Yes if 'The Odyssey' is among the official nominees for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards. Nominations are announced January 21, 2027, and the ceremony is March 14, 2027. If it isn't nominated, or no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No. The Academy/AMPAS is the primary source. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Costume Design. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Costume Design when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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