MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN21 levels openResearch 1d ago
Denis Villeneuve 54%Olivia Wilde 52%Ryusuke Hamaguchi 28%Jesse Eisenberg 25%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
21 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
21 options trading, by chance. +8 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Christopher Nolan96%95%−1
Javier Calvo86%83%−3
Javier Ambrossi78%83%+5
Denis Villeneuve54%52%−2
Olivia Wilde52%42%−10
Ryusuke Hamaguchi28%15%−13
+15 more options
AI analysts' average · Christopher Nolan
95%
1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Denis VilleneuveYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
Beth de AraujoYes crckrcrckr: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 crckrcrckr: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
Olivia WildeYes title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
Cristian MungiuYes sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
Javier CalvoNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Peter FarrellyNo jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Paweł PawlikowskiYes QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Danny BoyleNo title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Ben AffleckNo title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
12 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Christopher Nolan resolves Yes if they are officially nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards when nominations are announced (scheduled January 21, 2027). Otherwise it resolves No, including if no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. AMPAS and oscars.org are the primary source, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed director is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Director. If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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