MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN18 optionsResearch 6d ago
Christopher Nolan 61%Lance Oppenheim 14%Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi 13%Denis Villeneuve 10%
18 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
18 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Christopher Nolan61%55%−6
Lance Oppenheim14%6%−8
Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi13%8%−5
Denis Villeneuve10%13%+3
Martin McDonagh2%1%−1
Olivia Wilde1%3%+2
+12 more options
AI analysts' average · Christopher Nolan
55%
6 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Javier Calvo or Javier AmbrossiYes jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1sollydisasollydisa: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
Christopher NolanNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Denis VilleneuveNo HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Alejandro G. IñárrituNo HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
14 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Yes if Christopher Nolan wins Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards (ceremony scheduled Mar 14, 2027; nominations Jan 21, 2027). If he is not nominated, it resolves No right away. If no winner is declared by Jun 30, 2027, it resolves 'Other'.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed director who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Director. If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated director whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. Where an option lists more than one director, if one of the listed directors wins individually, or both listed options win jointly, that option will resolve to "Yes". If only one of the jointly listed directors is a joint winner with another individual (e.g., tied with a director from another option), only the winning listed director's last names will be considered for the purposes of alphabetical ordering. If both jointly listed directors win alongside one or more directors not listed in that option, all winning listed directors last names will be considered for the purposes of alphabetical ordering. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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