MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Nominations
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN8 levels openResearch 3d ago
American Doctor 62%14th 45%Nuisance Bear 31%One in a Million 31%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
8 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
8 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
NAZA88%80%−8
You Can See Everything82%90%+8
American Doctor62%58%−4
14th45%38%−7
Nuisance Bear31%30%−1
One in a Million31%32%+1
+2 more options
AI analysts' average · NAZA
80%
8 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
NAZANo QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 0 · 3
14thNo title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
Nuisance BearYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a PartyNo QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
You Can See EverythingNo sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
American DoctorYes title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
TutuNo QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 QR1QR1: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if NAZA is officially nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards when the nominations are announced (scheduled January 21, 2027). Otherwise it resolves No, including if no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The Academy (AMPAS, oscars.org) is the primary source, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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