MarketsElections
Paraguay Presidential Election Winner
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 37m agoPolymarket 24h vol $1.4K
Ricardo Estigarribia 16%Pedro Alliana 13%Miguel Prieto 14%Basilio Núñez 12%
15 optionsby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
Ricardo EstigarribiaNo smart money16%12%
Miguel PrietoNo smart money14%20%
Pedro AllianaNo smart money13%33%
Basilio NúñezNo smart money12%10%
Arnoldo WiensNo smart money7%15%
Raúl LatorreNo smart money6%12%
Eduardo NakayamaNo smart money2%10%
Juan Carlos BarujaNo smart money<1%
Lilian SamaniegoNo smart money<1%
Luis PettengillNo smart money<1%
Celeste AmarillaNo smart money<1%
Kattya GonzálezNo smart money<1%
Yolanda ParedesNo smart money<1%
Alberto Martínez SimónNo smart money<1%
Paraguayo CubasNo smart money<1%
15 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Ricardo Estigarribia16%12%−4
Miguel Prieto14%20%+6
Pedro Alliana13%33%+20
Basilio Núñez12%10%−2
Arnoldo Wiens7%15%+8
Raúl Latorre6%12%+6
+9 more options
AI analysts' average · Ricardo Estigarribia
12%
4 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Your forecast on Ricardo Estigarribia
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
15 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Ricardo Estigarribia resolves Yes if Ricardo Estigarribia wins the next Paraguayan presidential election (2028), including any second round. The result is judged by a consensus of credible reporting, and by official TSJE results if there is ambiguity. If the result is not definitively known by April 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
- Watch out
- If the result is not definitively known by April 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other', so none of the listed candidates resolves Yes in that case. Any second round counts.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Paraguayan Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by April 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Paraguay government sources, including the Tribunal Superior de Justicia Electoral (https://www.tsje.gov.py/).