Paris curfew effectively lifted by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 levels openResearch 10h ago
November 30 99%October 31 98%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
2 levels open · in level order
2 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · October 31
5 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 0 level, 1 price closer, on 358 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Rules
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- In plain English
- October 31 resolves Yes if any full calendar day (Paris time) from market creation through the stated date, inclusive, has no curfew in effect in any part of the City of Paris. A curfew is an official order generally barring the general population from public spaces during set hours. Curfews of any scope in Paris count. Curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups do not count, and neither do bans on demonstrations. Otherwise it resolves No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Paris time), passes without any curfew in effect in any part of the City of Paris, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A calendar day passes without any curfew in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Paris time on that day, a curfew is in effect in any part of the City of Paris. The City of Paris refers to the municipality (commune) of Paris, within its official municipal boundaries. A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A curfew of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Paris. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not be considered curfews for the purposes of this market. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not be considered curfews unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
