MarketsPolitics
Peggy Flanagan runs behind Amy Klobuchar by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 optionsResearch 1d ago
3-6 points behind 32%0-3 points behind 30%6-9 points behind 20%9+ points behind 18%
5 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
9+ points behind18%14%−4
6-9 points behind20%24%+4
3-6 points behind32%29%−3
0-3 points behind30%24%−6
Runs ahead7%7%0
AI analysts' average · 3-6 points behind
29%
3 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 359 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes for 3-6 points behind if the gap, in percentage points, between Amy Klobuchar's share of the vote in the November 3, 2026 Minnesota governor race and Peggy Flanagan's share of the vote in the U.S. Senate race falls in that option's bracket. 'Runs ahead' means Flanagan's share is higher than Klobuchar's. Brackets are 0-3, 3-6, 6-9 and 9+ points behind. A gap exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket, and an exact tie goes to '0-3 points behind'. Shares are certified votes for…
- Resolution criteria
- The 2026 Minnesota general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Minnesota, and Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Minnesota. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Peggy Flanagan’s vote share in the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election falls below Amy Klobuchar’s vote share in the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election. If Flanagan’s vote share exceeds Klobuchar’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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