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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN1 level openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 16h ago

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? 34%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?34%+8.0 pts21%2 · 4

1 option trading.

AI analysts

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 16h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?34%21%−13

AI analysts' average · Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

21%

13 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts

Track record

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Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 30m ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes smellyEllie T2 No M2sx92kljs42 T1 2 smellyEllie T2justT T2 4 M2sx92kljs42 T1controls T2 2 · 4

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

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In plain English: Resolves Yes if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026 (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before then also resolves Yes at once, whenever it takes effect. Otherwise No. The sources are official information from Hegseth and the U.S. government, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How markets resolve