Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
5 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 6d ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
$50M21%18%−3
$100M18%19%+1
$200M14%13%−1
$300M10%5%−5
$400M6%5%−1
AI analysts' average · $50M
18%
3 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
2News
No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 15h ago
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
$50MNomefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T106mefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T1·0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T10 · 6
$100MNomefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T105mefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T1·0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T10 · 5
$200MNomefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T104mefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T1·BeyonddreamBeyonddream: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T20 · 4
$400MNomefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T102mefirofanmefirofan: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T1·0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T10 · 2
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options
Yes if Puffpaw's governance token is publicly tradable by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET and its FDV (total supply × price) is above $50M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch, using the most liquid price source. Otherwise No, including if there is no launch by that deadline.Show rulesHide rules
In plain English
Yes if Puffpaw's governance token is publicly tradable by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET and its FDV (total supply × price) is above $50M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch, using the most liquid price source. Otherwise No, including if there is no launch by that deadline.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
