Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
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Resolved0 levels open4 closedResearch 5d ago
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
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AI analysts' average · October 31
11 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
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- In plain English
- The 'by October 31' market resolves Yes if, at any moment up to October 31, 11:59 PM ET, representatives of Russia and Ukraine who are authorized to negotiate hold a deliberate, in-person diplomatic meeting. Indirect in-person meetings through authorized mediators count. Remote meetings, phone calls, brief greetings and chance encounters do not count. The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Otherwise the market resolves No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.