MarketsPolitics
Sean Duffy announced out as Secretary of Transportation by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 1m agoPolymarket 24h vol $963.9
December 31 22%November 30 7%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
2 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
November 30No smart money7%
December 31No smart money22%
2 open levels, in level order.
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sean Duffy’s departure through resignation or removal as Secretary of Transportation is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Sean Duffy, the White House, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Duffy has resigned or been removed, or will resign or be removed, as Secretary of Transportation. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position; resignation includes retiring or stepping down as Secretary of Transportation, including to take another role in the Trump administration, and removal includes dismissal or termination by the President. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure through resignation or removal intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term through such a departure without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a qualifying resignation or removal occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If the specified person ceases to hold the specified position by any other means, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Sean Duffy and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.