MarketsCrypto
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN10 levels openResearch 5d ago
$1B 3%$5B 2%$50M 2%$3B 2%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
10 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
10 options trading. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
$50M2%1%−1
$100M1%1%0
$400M1%1%0
$800M 2%1%−1
$1B3%1%−2
$2B<1%1%0
+4 more options
AI analysts' average · $1B
1%
2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
$800M Yes 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No balthazarbalthazar: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 balthazarbalthazar: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2BeyonddreamBeyonddream: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 · 2
$100MYes LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1balthazarbalthazar: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 3
$1BYes LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1BeyonddreamBeyonddream: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 3
$50MYes LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No balthazarbalthazar: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 balthazarbalthazar: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2BeyonddreamBeyonddream: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
$400MYes LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1balthazarbalthazar: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
$3BNo 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1balthazarbalthazar: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 3
$2BYes 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c0xE2B44168f9C361a06a64ED3Fe0E858634E883c: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
$10BYes LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Yes only if StandX launches a publicly tradable token by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET and its FDV is above $1B at 4:00 PM ET on the day after launch. Otherwise No, including if no token launches.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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