MarketsWeather
Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of November 10, 2026
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $442.1
Arkansas 50%Colorado 50%Georgia 50%Idaho 50%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
33 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
AlabamaNo smart money2%
ArizonaNo smart money14%
ArkansasNo smart money50%
CaliforniaNo smart money13%
ColoradoNo smart money50%
FloridaNo smart money13%
GeorgiaNo smart money50%
IdahoNo smart money50%
IllinoisNo smart money7%
IndianaNo smart money13%
IowaNo smart money13%
KansasNo smart money50%
KentuckyNo smart money50%
LouisianaNo smart money50%
MinnesotaNo smart money50%
MississippiNo smart money50%
MissouriNo smart money50%
MontanaNo smart money50%
NebraskaNo smart money50%
NevadaNo smart money50%
New MexicoNo smart money50%
North DakotaNo smart money50%
OklahomaNo smart money50%
OregonNo smart money50%
South CarolinaNo smart money50%
South DakotaNo smart money50%
TennesseeNo smart money50%
TexasNo smart money50%
UtahNo smart money50%
VirginiaNo smart money50%
WashingtonNo smart money50%
WisconsinNo smart money50%
WyomingNo smart money50%
33 options trading.
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
33 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of November 10, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 33 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for November: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.