MarketsTech
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 levels openResearch 1d ago
June 30, 2027 52%February 28, 2027 31%January 31, 2027 25%December 31, 2026 14%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
4 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
December 31, 202614%16%+2
January 31, 202725%29%+4
February 28, 202731%33%+2
June 30, 202752%56%+4
AI analysts' average · June 30, 2027
56%
4 pts above the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 394–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
December 31, 2026Yes Optimus-Optimus-: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No chaosj88chaosj88: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 Optimus-Optimus-: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 chaosj88chaosj88: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
January 31, 2027Yes chaosj88chaosj88: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 chaosj88chaosj88: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1DragontreeDragontree: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 · 1
February 28, 2027Yes Optimus-Optimus-: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 Optimus-Optimus-: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 · 1
June 30, 2027Yes Optimus-Optimus-: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 Optimus-Optimus-: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 LornaPredictsLornaPredicts: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- June 30, 2027: resolves Yes if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces that one will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the other, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Partial deals count only if the acquirer gets a controlling interest (more than 50% or equivalent control). Otherwise No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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