MarketsPolitics
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN9 optionsResearch 14h ago
Talarico 0-3% 33%Talarico 3-6% 25%Paxton 0-3% 16%Paxton 3-6% 10%
9 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
9 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Paxton 12%+<1%1%0
Paxton 9-12%5%3%−2
Paxton 6-9%3%4%+1
Paxton 3-6%10%8%−2
Paxton 0-3%16%24%+8
Talarico 0-3%33%31%−2
+3 more options
AI analysts' average · Talarico 0-3%
31%
2 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 359–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
9 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- The market resolves on the margin of victory (the absolute gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes) in the November 3, 2026 Texas Senate election, using the official certified results. Only the option whose bracket contains the margin and whose party candidate won resolves Yes. For example, 'Paxton 3-6%' is Yes if the Republican wins by 3 to 6 points. A margin exactly on a bracket boundary goes to the higher bracket. If the result isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves 'Other'. A recount keeps the market open until the vote is official.
- Resolution criteria
- The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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