Alysa Liu 61%Vozinha 36%Kylian Mbappé 34%Lionel Messi 31%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
12 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 6d ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Erling Braut Haaland77%63%−14
Alysa Liu61%60%−1
Vozinha36%28%−8
Kylian Mbappé34%18%−16
Lionel Messi31%28%−3
Lindsey Vonn28%32%+4
+6 more options
AI analysts' average · Erling Braut Haaland
63%
14 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 360–394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
2News
No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Lionel MessiYespingentfan1pingentfan1: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T1·NoAnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T11pingentfan1pingentfan1: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T11AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T11 · 1
Victor WembanyamaNopingentfan1pingentfan1: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T102pingentfan1pingentfan1: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T1·AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T10 · 2
Erling Braut HaalandNoAnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T101AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T10 · 1
Alysa LiuNopingentfan1pingentfan1: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T101pingentfan1pingentfan1: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T10 · 1
Kylian MbappéNoAnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T101AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T10 · 1
Ilia MalininNoAnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T101AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T10 · 1
Folarin BalogunNoAnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T101AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T10 · 1
Lamine YamalYesAnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T11AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T101 · 0
Conor McGregorNoAnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T101AnjunAnjun: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T10 · 1
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 12 options
Yes if Erling Haaland is ranked in the Top 5 of Google's official Year in Search 2026 Global 'Athletes' list (trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search, Global → Trending → Athletes). Otherwise No, including if Google has not released the list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.Show rulesHide rules
In plain English
Yes if Erling Haaland is ranked in the Top 5 of Google's official Year in Search 2026 Global 'Athletes' list (trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search, Global → Trending → Athletes). Otherwise No, including if Google has not released the list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed athlete is ranked in the Top 5 of Google’s official Year in Search Global "Athletes" list for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → Athletes. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure.
This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.